The Oregon State Regional

Regional Draw

Schedule

April 2, 2:00pm PT – San Jose v Washington Play-in
April 3, 1:00pm PT – Semifinal #1
April 3, 7:00pm PT – Semifinal #2
April 5, 5:00pm PT – Final

What’s Her Story?

Her story is that UCLA, Alabama, and Utah. The end. Miserably ever after. These three teams account for an exact 50% off all the NCAA team titles won since the concept of women began in 1982, and they’re all going to walk into the same regional. And only two of them can walk out. And the rankings tell us the one to be eliminated is Utah. And Utah has never failed to advance to nationals (NCAA or AIAW) in its entire history, a 50-year streak. So it’s a thing.

The easy-but-true analysis is that these are three very strong teams, none of whom are anywhere in the vicinity of “safe,” and it won’t take more than a couple wobbles or non-sticks to send any one of them out. Or any two of them. Because while theoretical spoiler Minnesota got the most devilish of draws by getting lumped with three of the legendary four teams, they are still a very 197-able squad that should keep everyone else honest.

Is there a favorite? The overall season tells us Utah would be the odd team out, but recent scores tell us Alabama, ranked 4th in the country up until last week, is actually in the most trouble since team averages for the last month of meets have UCLA at 197.669, Utah at 197.481, and Alabama at 197.306.

What’s Her Semifinal Story?

Oh, hey Oregon State, you wanted to host regionals? Congratulations, here is the hardest semifinal possible. Denver and Oregon State definitely got the dud regionals draw this year as it’s going to be extremely difficult to knock out Alabama or Utah before the big regional final showdown. Denver does, however, outrank Utah on floor, which could signal the possible way in. We’ve seen Utah be too depleted at times this year to cobble together a hit-able six on floor and, even en route to a massive floor score last week, had to drop a miss at Big 12s.

Iowa is 0-4 against Minnesota this season, which doesn’t speak super rosily about their chance to snatch an upset in this semifinal, but this has been a record-breaking season for Iowa featuring the highest team score in history. A 197 is more realistic now than it has been before, and that’s an upset-level score.

Big Tens did produce the closest margin of the season between the two teams as Iowa went 196.700 to win session 2 before Minnesota put up 196.900 in session 3. Of course, that was with Minnesota counting a fall on beam in what was otherwise looking like a mid-197, a score that Iowa has not reached this year.

Individual Qualification

For those who do not make nationals with a team, one AAer and one gymnast on each apparatus also advance.

All-Around

The national rankings for the all-arounders in the Oregon State regional

This regional was the bad one to get if you have individual qualification aspirations. With Chiles, Neff, and Gladieux, all three biggest team contenders also have a top all-arounder who can go through if they don’t make it as a team, as well as an execution queen backup for their top all-arounder (Sumanasekera, Zirbes, LaCoursiere), and that’s before even getting into Aurelie Tran, Arianna Ostrum, and Sophia Esposito, all of whom would be strong picks in most regionals.

Event Top 10s

Projecting individual event qualifiers to nationals is notoriously impossible, so here we go with the top 10 ranked gymnasts in the regional on each event.

VAULT

Um…whoever sticks a Yurchenko 1.5? Vault presents a solid opportunity for Arianna Ostrum, who has a 10 this year, if she gets elbowed out of the way in the all-around.

BARS

LaCoursiere and Ra-Akbar will be tough to beat if Alabama doesn’t advance, and Avery Neff will be tough to beat if they do, but Aurelie Tran and Jordyn Lyden are very capable of getting right in there as well. Do I hear a 9-way tie on 9.950????

BEAM

[Puts on smart-guy glasses] Minnesota intentionally picked to start on floor so that they could end on beam in the second semifinal and take advantage of rising scores to get an individual beam qualifier to nationals.

FLOOR

Gabby Gladieux and Makenna Smith have both been extremely consistent with the 9.9+ scores (Gladieux with 8 straight, Smith with 6 straight), so you’d lean toward their chances to replicate that even if it doesn’t end up being a great day for the whole team.

Team Score Trackers

Each gymnast from the conference championship lineup is listed with her NQS on that apparatus (or average if she doesn’t have an NQS), followed by what the 5-count total for the event would be using these scores.

Because the individual NQS system still uses the old method of dropping all the bad ones, these totals are very much better-case-scenario scores. What does it look like if everyone is a perfect princess who has never done anything wrong all at the exact same time?

Semifinal #1

Semifinal #2