College Week 11 — Final NQS Scenarios

Table of contents:
NQS Leaders
Format Refresher
Seeding Scenarios
Regionals Bubble
Record Breakers
Postseason Outlook

Top 25 NQS Breakdown

The top 25 teams and the origin story of how their rankings came to be.

NOTES:
*Utah’s RTN ranking still reflects all Maverik Center meets being counted as away meets, so that’s what’s happening here. Both formulations would have Utah ranked #12. For now.

**Penn State and Ohio State are officially listed as tied at #17 on RTN because their NQSs are rounded to three decimal places, but Penn State’s actual NQS is higher than Ohio State’s. It’s Chellsie-Nastia 2005 all over again, except this time it doesn’t matter.

Regionals Format Refresher

…How does this all go again?

–At the end of competition on Saturday, the top 36 teams will advance to the postseason elimination meets, and everyone else is eliminated.

–The 36 teams are divided into 4 regional sites, each with 9 teams. The top 16 teams are serpentine seeded and distributed to the 4 regional sites as follows:

–The remaining 5 teams for each regional are unseeded nationally and assigned to a site based (predominantly) (sometimes) on geography rather than ranking.

–Once the 9 teams for each regional are established, the #8 and #9 ranked teams in each regional must compete in the play-in (round one) to see who advances to the regional semifinals.

–The regional semifinal draws for each site are as follows:

–The top 2 teams in each regional semifinal advance to the 4-team regional final. The top 2 teams in each regional final advance to the 8-team national championship.

Seeding Watch

What’s still to be decided in the race for the top 16

–Oklahoma and LSU could still flip-flop for the national postseason #1 ranking. Oklahoma is in the driver’s seat and would clinch postseason #1 with another 197.925 at SECs.

–Regardless of how they end up, LSU is a regionals host, so we already know that LSU is staying home for regionals. Oklahoma will therefore have geographic priority among the remaining sites and will head to Kentucky. #3 Florida will head to the Arizona State regional, and the #4 team will headline the Oregon State regional.

–The #4 ranking could still go to either Alabama or UCLA. UCLA would guarantee taking it with a season high at Big Tens.

–6 of the top 8 teams are set (Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Georgia), but #7 Stanford and #8 Arkansas could still be vulnerable to #9 Missouri and #10 Michigan for a #2 regionals seeding.

—Top 8 scenarios: Stanford needs better than 196.850 to clinch a top-8 spot, while Arkansas and Missouri are so close to each other that it’s basically just going to come down to who does better at SECs. And then Michigan is still in it to spoil if others see their NQSs drop. Michigan’s max possible NQS is lower than the current top 9 NQSs, so they’d need a little help to get into the conversation, but still could.

–A 196.595 NQS is the seeding safe zone cutoff. A final NQS above that mark clinches a spot in the top 16 and a regionals seeding. That means everyone through #13 Minnesota is already assured a top 16 ranking, while #14 Cal, #15 Clemson, and #16 Auburn might still be in danger.

—Top 16 scenarios: Cal ended up being only .025 from mathematical safety, but needs only to avoid a 195.550 or lower at ACCs to clinch a seeding. Clemson has a little more work to do but would clinch with 196.225 at ACCs. Auburn would need a more challenging 197.050 to guarantee a regionals spot, but it may not actually take that much if the challengers don’t get season highs.

–Everyone down to #22 North Carolina is still technically in contention for a top 16 ranking if the frontrunners don’t clinch.

Drop Zone Watch

Who’s safe, and who still needs a score in the final meet

LAST IN

FIRST OUT

–All teams below #42 have already been eliminated.

–A few teams that are technically still vulnerable don’t have to do much to clinch. #30 Arizona needs just 193.775 to get rid of those question marks, while #33 Air Force needs 194.350 and #34 Central Michigan needs an only slightly more onerous 194.950.

–When we get to the final two spots for regionals, things are more tenuous. We won’t really know where we stand until after the opening session of Big Tens on Friday night when #35 Washington and #37 Rutgers compete. Both Washington and Rutgers are able to clinch regionals spots in that meet, Washington with a 196.100 and Rutgers with a 196.500.

–If they get both those numbers, there will be only slim chances remaining for the other teams, but if not, we’ll at least have a better sense of who is still in and what scores they might need.

Record Breakers

Record-breaking (or tying) scores from week 11

Oldest Record Broken
We weren’t really much for breaking old records this week. Most of the records broken had been set about a week or so ago. But Maggie Slife’s record-breaking 9.975 on beam for Air Force did beat the old mark of 9.925 that was originally set by Analise Howard in 2018.

NCAA top 10s
Florida’s 198.575 ties for #10 on the all-time team score list

Team Total Records
Air Force 197.150

Team Event Records
Air Force 49.525 on beam
NC State 49.500 on bars
Rutgers 49.475 on floor

Team Event Records (tied)
Florida 49.800 on beam

Individual School Records
Maggie Slife 39.675 AA for Air Force
Maggie Slife 9.975 BB for Air Force

Individual School Records (tied)
Selena Harris-Miranda 10.000 BB for Florida
Kailin Chio 10.000 VT for LSU
Kailin Chio 10.000 BB for LSU
Kailin Chio 10.000 FX for LSU
Nikki Smith 10.000 FX for Michigan State
Arianna Ostrum 10.000 VT for Minnesota
Anna Roberts 10.000 VT for Stanford
Anna Roberts 10.000 FX for Stanford
Joscelyn Roberson 9.975 BB for Arkansas
Elle Hadrick 9.975 UB for NC State
Maggie Slife 9.925 VT for Air Force

Team Total Top 5s
Florida 198.575 (#3)
Clemson 197.175 (#3)
Rutgers 196.550 (#3)
Minnesota 197.825 (#4)
Air Force 195.925 (#4)

All-Around Top 5s
Gabrielle Dildy 39.525 for Rutgers (#2)
Amara Nelson 38.525 for Greenville (#2)
Alyssa Bigler 39.500 for Air Force (#5)

If It Ended Today…

If the season ended today, the regionals draw would be

#1: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn
(@ Kentucky)

#2: LSU, Stanford, Michigan, Clemson
(@ LSU)

#3: Florida, Georgia, Michigan St, Cal
(@ Arizona St)

#4: Alabama, UCLA, Utah, Minnesota
(@ Oregon St)

Things to think about:
–Utah officially cannot get into the top 8. Two top-8 teams are going to have to deal with Utah (the school that has never not made nationals, ever) in their regional, but it’s by no means clear which ones. There are still viable scenarios in which Utah ends up at any of the four regional sites. Have funnnnnnnn.

–The Kentucky Situation. Kentucky is currently slated to be an unseeded spoiler in its own regional. It’s still possible for Kentucky to get into the top 16 after Saturday, and lots of teams will be rooting for that to happen because no one wants Kentucky as the third-best team in their regional semifinal. With Ohio State also geographically heading to the Kentucky regional, that would mean that if current rankings hold, Arkansas and Missouri would have Kentucky joining them in the semifinal with only two advancing.